A poll commissioned by Plaid Cymru shows the Party coming 3rd in the upcoming EU Elections and retaining their one seat.
Surveying 1,133 Welsh voters between May 10th and May 15th the question asked was:
“In the election to the European Parliament on 23rd May, which party will you vote for?”
Results excluding those who would not vote or don’t know were as follows:
- The Brexit Party 33% 33%
- Labour 18% 18%
- Plaid Cymru 16% 16%
- Liberal Democrats 10% 10%
- Greens 8% 8%
- Conservative 7% 7%
- Change UK 4% 4%
- UKIP 3% 3%
If we take those percentages and apply them with the same 31.5% turnout figure from 2014 it would result in the following votes per party:
The Brexit Party – 241,910
Labour – 131,951
Plaid Cymru – 117,290
Liberal Democrats – 73,306
Greens – 58,645
Conservative – 51,314
Change UK – 29,322
UKIP – 21,992
Applying those numbers to the seats awarded it would give Wales the following MEPs (and it’s a rather sad state of affairs with the Brexit Party getting 2/4 of the available seats):
Seat 1: Nathan Gill (Brexit Party)
Seat 2: Jaqueline Jones (Labour)
Seat 3: James Wells (Brexit Party)
Seat 4: Jill Evans (Plaid Cymru)
It’s worth noting that Nathan Gill was elected as a UKIP member in 2014, changed to an Independent in 2018 and then joined the Brexit Party in 2019.
While it is good to see the Tory vote falling from 17.43% in 2014 to a projected 7% this time round this is tempered by the fact that the Brexit Party will be the big winners.
So I urge you all to do everything you can to get the Plaid Cymru vote out on May 23rd.