At the weekend The Times Scotland newspaper published a poll showing amongst other things that support for Scottish Independence has risen to 49%. I’ve finally got hold of the data tables for the poll and will analyse the results below.

The poll surveyed 1029 Adults living in Scotland aged 16 and above, and was conducted between April 24th and 26th.

The first important thing to point out is the way those surveyed voted in the 2014 independence referendum. The weighted totals used were YES – 388 and NO – 481 (the unweighted totals were YES – 387 and NO – 514). Now I’m no psephologist but the sample seems unfairly skewed towards 2014 NO voters.

The question we shall look at is:

If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland’s future and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Scotland be an independent country?

Combined Totals of all 1029 Respondents
Yes – 44%
No – 45%
Would not vote – 3%
Don’t Know – 7%
Refused – 1%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 49%
No – 51%

Those who Voted CON in 2017 (Weighted – 211/Unweighted – 222)
Yes – 4%
No – 93%
Would not vote – 1%
Don’t Know – 1%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 4%
No – 96%

Those who Voted LAB in 2017 (Weighted – 200/Unweighted – 228)
Yes – 34%
No – 56%
Would not vote – 1%
Don’t Know – 9%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 38%
No – 62%

Those who Voted LD in 2017 (Weighted – 50/Unweighted – 49)
Yes – 12%
No – 74%
Would not vote – 0%
Don’t Know – 14%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 14%
No – 86%

Those who Voted SNP in 2017 (Weighted – 273/Unweighted – 310)
Yes – 86%
No – 8%
Would not vote – 1%
Don’t Know – 4%
Refused – 1%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 91%
No – 9%

Those who Voted to REMAIN in the EU in 2016 (Weighted – 516/Unweighted – 566)
Yes – 50%
No – 43%
Would not vote – 1%
Don’t Know – 5%
Refused – 1%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 54%
No – 46%

Those who Voted to LEAVE the EU in 2016 (Weighted – 516/Unweighted – 566)
Yes – 29%
No – 61%
Would not vote – 3%
Don’t Know – 6%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 32%
No – 68%

Those who Voted YES in 2014 (Weighted – 388/Unweighted – 387)
Yes – 77%
No – 16%
Would not vote – 2%
Don’t Know – 5%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 83%
No – 17%

Those who Voted NO in 2014 (Weighted – 481/Unweighted – 514)
Yes – 15%
No – 76%
Would not vote – 1%
Don’t Know – 6%
Refused – 1%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 16%
No – 84%

Those who Intend to Vote CON at Holyrood 2021 (Weighted – 161/Unweighted – 171)
Yes – 2%
No – 95%
Would not vote – 2%
Don’t Know – 1%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 2%
No – 98%

Those who Intend to Vote LAB at Holyrood 2021 (Weighted – 125/Unweighted – 138)
Yes – 24%
No – 65%
Would not vote – 1%
Don’t Know – 9%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 27%
No – 73%

Those who Intend to Vote LD at Holyrood 2021 (Weighted – 59/Unweighted – 57)
Yes – 17%
No – 72%
Would not vote – 4%
Don’t Know – 8%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 19%
No – 81%

Those who Intend to Vote SNP at Holyrood 2021 (Weighted – 356/Unweighted – 367)
Yes – 89%
No – 7%
Would not vote – 0%
Don’t Know – 4%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 93%
No – 7%

Males (Weighted – 496/Unweighted – 468)
Yes – 47%
No – 42%
Would not vote – 4%
Don’t Know – 6%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 53%
No – 47%

Females (Weighted – 533/Unweighted – 561)
Yes – 41%
No – 48%
Would not vote – 2%
Don’t Know – 8%
Refused – 1%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 46%
No – 54%

Age 16-24 (Weighted – 135/Unweighted – 108)
Yes – 58%
No – 23%
Would not vote – 5%
Don’t Know – 12%
Refused – 3%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 72%
No – 28%

Age 25-49 (Weighted – 409/Unweighted – 419)
Yes – 54%
No – 35%
Would not vote – 2%
Don’t Know – 8%
Refused – 1%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 61%
No – 39%

Age 50-64 (Weighted – 255/Unweighted – 275)
Yes – 39%
No – 53%
Would not vote – 3%
Don’t Know – 6%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 42%
No – 58%

Age 65+ (Weighted – 230/Unweighted – 227)
Yes – 25%
No – 67%
Would not vote – 4%
Don’t Know – 5%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 27%
No – 73%

Social Grade ABC1 (Weighted – 535/Unweighted – 591)
Yes – 45%
No – 44%
Would not vote – 2%
Don’t Know – 8%
Refused – 1%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 51%
No – 49%

Social Grade C2DE (Weighted – 494/Unweighted – 438)
Yes – 43%
No – 46%
Would not vote – 5%
Don’t Know – 7%
Refused – 0%

Excluding would not vote, don’t know & refused
Yes – 48%
No – 52%

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